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Taking a Closer Look at the Markets - April 2010Since the last issue of Freeflow in September 2009, demand for MMA has dropped from the high point we were experiencing at the time - which was being driven in part by re-inventorying throughout the chain - to a more ‘normal’ and sustainable level. by the end of q1’10 we are starting to see encouraging signs in some of the downstream markets. the European methacrylates market is also still adjusting to the asset closures that occurred in 2009 and, for the first time, the true impact of these is being felt within the industry supply chain. “Demand in Europe is recovering after a slow start to the year and it is predicted to continue to show a modest increase over 2009 levels. The European supply/demand balance has changed since this time last year; Europe is a net importer and its supply chains are more stretched.” Supply Europe is now reliant on fewer production assets than at this time 12 months ago. As a consequence, imports are a more significant aspect of the region’s mass balance. For the first time the European market has to be able to import product on a regular and sustained basis. This means that worldwide supply and demand balances, European market pricing (relative to the other regions), as well as fluctuating parameters, such as exchange rates, will all have a major part to play in determining the availability of methacrylates in Europe in the future. Lucite International (LI) has recognised the impact that this change of circumstances will have, and has taken steps to address it. With longer supply chains and lower total inventory being held in the region, there is now, more than ever, a need to work closely and co-operatively with our customers and we are actively seeking this dialogue. In the last six months a new plant in China has started up, but a significant proportion of the MMA capacity that was planned to be introduced or re-introduced this year has suffered setbacks. Most notably there has been a delay to the two new-build projects in Thailand. This has resulted in there being significantly less installed MMA capacity than had originally been planned at this time, which is particularly important given the higher than forecast global demand from the market. Demand After a disappointing end to 2009 and an overhang of that environment into 2010, demand in Europe has taken a number of months to become properly re-established. The onset of the coatings season has provided a welcome boost to demand levels and it is forecast that this segment will continue the recovery (with the normal seasonal fluctuation) that it has exhibited since Q2 last year. By contrast, demand from the cast and extruded sheet markets has not been so strong since they experienced an up-turn in Q3/early Q4’09 and demand remains at the same level as Q2’09. The major factor that will determine European methacrylate demand is the rate at which construction projects are resumed. Many projects for domestic dwellings have been re-started after a 12-month hiatus. However, there is real concern about the commercial side of the industry and the funds that governments will have to commit to national infrastructure projects. Demand in Asia, and in particularly in China, bounced back sharply last year in Q2, and has continued unabated. The support provided by various governments in the region, plus an increased level of confidence, has resulted in Asia being short of product, which means it must import, when it had been predicted to be in a net export position. Demand continues to be fuelled by pMMA for LED screens, SM for packaging and t-ABS for domestic appliances. In addition, the regional automotive industry seems to be emerging from the doldrums of 12 months ago, at a faster pace than in other parts of the world. After many months of subdued demand, all segments of the North American market have picked up, which is putting additional strain on the limited supply in that region. Cost Base The MMA industry in Europe is running significantly behind the curve compared to its feedstock costs. The cost of acetone alone has increased by 23% in 2010, with additional cost pressure being expected from methanol, ammonia and natural gas/energy. From crude oil down, it appears that there will be no relaxation in this trend in the immediate future and price increases for many of the major feedstocks required for methacrylate production have already been announced for Q2’10. Summary Demand in Europe is recovering after a slow start to the year and it is predicted to continue to show a modest increase over 2009 levels. The European supply/demand balance has changed since this time last year; Europe is a net importer and its supply chains are more stretched. This will become even more apparent as demand returns. LI’s objective therefore is to work constructively with its customer base through what is hopefully an upswing in market demand to ensure cost effective continuity of supply.
Taking a Closer Look at the Markets - September 2009Since the last issue of FreeFlow in September 2008, the world of MMA has experienced unparalleled change, as has the market for almost every other industrial chemical. As we emerge from that particularly turbulent period, Lucite International (LI) is assessing the state of the 'new' marketplace and looking ahead to see what the future will bring. Difficult times call for tough decisions Within the last four months, two MMA manufacturers in Europe have made announcements that will result in a combined reduction of 17% in the installed MMA capacity in Europe. This is on top of the closure of both Russian MMA plants in 2008, and represents a significant re-structuring of the industry in a relatively short period of time. Demand has bounced back In Q1'09, demand for MMA in EAME fell to about 65% of the record levels experienced 12 months earlier. By Q2'09, that statistic had improved to about 85%, however, by the end of Q2'08 it was already obvious that a downturn was looming. At the time of writing, during Q3'09, demand for MMA has rebounded to 2007 levels; the result of an improvement in underlying demand as some confidence is restored, and also as a result of re-stocking throughout the downstream chain. The up-turn in demand form the coatings segment was first observed in early Q2'09 and was due to the traditional seasonal increase in demand for coatings applications through the summer months. This has been primarily for architectural coatings and for wood and metal, but demand from the automotive sector has also been observed to have picked up as a result of the various stimulus packages being implemented by countries around Europe. Today, there are also signs that demand from the cast and extruded sheet markets is improving. This is possibly the most welcome sign, as it is these segments that are most highly aligned with the construction industry, which suffered the biggest downturn during the first half of this year. Demand in the Asian market had already started to increase by early Q2'09, driven by pMMA demand for LCD screens; this seems to be being sustained. Demand in the Americas is still subdued, although the market is balanced due to available capacity. Flexibility is key Despite these high demand levels in Europe, few players are willing or able to give confident predictions on the outlook for Q4'09, or 2010. It is clear therefore that there will be an ongoing requirement to be flexible and be able to adapt to whatever market environment materialises over the coming period. New projects coming to market; but what next? Over the past year, the majority of new plants that were scheduled to start operating have been brought on-line more or less to plan. From LI's perspective, the pinnacle was the safe and successful start-up of the Alpha 1 plant in Singapore, which is now operating at flowsheet rates. The Daesan MMA plant became operational in Q2 this year and Evonik intends to bring its plant in China on-line later this year. MRC will bring its new plant in Thailand on-line in 2010, but after that, the arrival of new capacity is much less certain. Projects planned for completion post 2010 would have to have been sanctioned during the last 12 months, which would have been difficult in an environment where chemical companies have been struggling to return the margins required to support new investment. The longer that this period of economic uncertainty lasts, the greater will be the delay to all but the most financially attractive and robust of new-build projects. Cost base Feedstock costs remain a concern. While the current elevated demand for MMA is welcomed, the general increased level of demand for base chemicals is a concern for the cost base of manufacturers. The trend of increasing acetone costs through Q1 and Q2 this year against a backdrop of falling MMA prices was unsustainable and meant that the trend had to be reversed; hence MMA prices increased in Q3. However, the relentless rise in acetone costs is continuing through Q3 and methacrylates prices must now be moved upwards again to ensure that manufacture remains profitable. Summary and outlook The landscape in Europe is going through a period of significant change, to which we will all have to adapt. The MRC/LI group continues to invest in new, cost-effective capacity, and to bring that capacity to market for its customers via reliable supply chains. The outlook on demand is still unclear and the ongoing challenge for LI will be to remain as flexible and responsive as possible to customer needs in what will inevitably continue to be a dynamic market.
European Methacrylate Market Review - September 2008
Significant Change in the Last Six Months
2008 Demand Outlook Is Still Positive Global MMA demand is still driven by the Asian region. Demand for pMMA for LCDs, MS (methyl styrene) and tABS (transparent ABS) continues to be very strong. Changes to coatings formulations due to new VOC legislation is also contributing a significant and sustained level of demand growth worldwide. In Europe, all sectors have been impacted to some extent by the downturn in the construction industry (primarily housing new builds), but many methacrylate-consuming companies are continuing to invest and are bringing new efficient capacity to the market in 2008 and 2009, which will allow those players to remain competitive in today's global market.
Production Side Has a Mixed Report In the second half of 2008, there will be a heavy overhaul programme in Asia and a number of major planned overhauls taking place in Europe, including a four week outage at Lucite International's (LI) Cassel works site in the UK in Q4. These events will further reduce available MMA during this period.
New Build Projects Proceeding
Feedstock and Energy Costs Are a Major Concern Through the first half of 2008, MMA prices were increasing in Asia and the US whilst in Europe they were falling. That trend has been reversed in Europe in Q3 but the MMA industry must still strive to return acceptable margins so that in the short term the required volume can be produced and, in the longer term, that investments will be made in the new capacity required to satisfy the world's continuing healthy growth in MMA demand.
Methacrylic Acid (MMA) Sees Strong Demand Continue Although figures show the automotive sector to be down in the more traditional geographic areas, demand for automotive coatings in developing countries has increased and hence the level of MAA demand into this segment has been sustained. The demand for MAA for latexes and speciality resins for coatings for industrial applications has also been very strong, due in no small way to the level of investment in chemical and process plants. All in all 2008 looks to be a good year for MAA demand, and this is forecast to continue. However, MAA faces the same challenges as MMA with regard to feedstock costs and depressed margins, and improving this position will continue to be the number one focus for the business.
European Methacrylate Market Review - April 2008MMA demand continues to be robust in the first quarter of 2008 and the outlook for the rest of 2008 is positive, if a little more cautious than at this time 12 months ago. Lucite International (LI) has a strong commitment to delivering a reliable and high quality supply service to its customers in the MMA merchant market. This service extends beyond delivering products that meet customers' needs on time, and in full to ensuring that it adds value wherever it is possible to do so. With this in mind, we are pleased to be able to share our understanding of the MMA market dynamics so that our customers and partners can appreciate the trading conditions we face together. With more than 25% market share and a global spread that encompasses the US, Asia and Europe, we believe that our world-class systems and local market intelligence provide the best possible forecasting and planning tools to underpin effective supply. Here, MMA Business Director, Malcolm Kidd, shares his thoughts on the current market dynamics and outlook for 2008.
Another strong year for growth in MMA demand
2008 outlook is still positive
New build proceeding to plan Interestingly, since 2005, three world-scale plants have been brought on-line and global occupacity has not fallen below 93%. The forecast is that the new capacity that is planned will be required to satisfy the projected level of growth in demand for MMA.
MMA demand strong across the segments
Selective sectors are particularly robust
MMA margins compressed over last 6 months
European Methacrylate Market Review - September 2007With manufacturing, R&D, sales and marketing and support operations in all three main economies, Lucite International (LI) is uniquely placed to provide reliable and up-to-date market data to support its customers and partners in the acrylics industry. Local knowledge and experience is backed by world-class systems to help ensure that the information is an accurate reflection of the climate we face in the MMA industry. As part of a regular quarterly review that is publish both on line here at www.luciteinternational.com/freeflowmarket) and in FreeFlow magazine, we hear from Malcolm Kidd, LI's Commercial Director for Monomers in Europe.
The outlook for Europe remains positive
Strong demand and investment
European demand keeping pace with the rest of the world In a global market of approximately 2.9 million tonnes in 2007, the EAME region will account for almost 25%. In approximately two years time, Asia is predicted to have grown to account for just over half of the world's demand for MMA. However, EAME and the Americas are also predicted to have good sustained growth in that period - and without any significant increase in MMA production capacity. ![]()
New build keeping pace with demand Today the MMA industry in Europe is estimated to be operating with an occupacity of >95%, after accounting for planned and unplanned outages. With no significant new capacity scheduled to come on line for at least the next 18 months, the industry will continue to operate at this level, which will provide an ongoing challenge for the supply chains.
No relief from feedstock costs European Methacrylate Market Review - July 2007Following the successful launch of FreeFlow magazine and our on-line quarterly market analysis in April this year, we are pleased to bring you our latest update. MMA Monomers Commercial Director, Malcolm Kidd, gives his views on the continuing strong demand for MMA and how the market is shaping up as we enter Q3.
Strongest ever European MMA demand
Global Markets move into balance
Forecast over 5% growth in European demand during 2007
MAA market tightens European Methacrylate Market Review - April 2007
Delivering reliably to customers in the MMA merchant market is of the highest priority for Lucite International (LI). We realise just how critical our ability to supply on time and in full is for our partners' businesses. Achieving consistent supply requires a deep and wide appreciation of the market dynamics and that's where LI is uniquely placed. With more than 25% market share and a global reach that incorporates all three major geo-economic regions, we believe that our world-class systems and local market intelligence provide the best possible forecasting and planning tools to help us supply effectively. Here, MMA Monomers Commercial Director, Malcolm Kidd, shares his thoughts on the dynamics for 2007 and how they may effect the European market.
MMA stocks will continue to be under pressure
Surging European growth
Downstream growth driving MMA demand
Performance of European supply base will impact stocks
Track record of MMA growth set to continue
MMA growth continues to grow
Supply is challenged to keep-up with Demand
Lucite International committed to support strong growth in European demand
European occupacity predicted to reach 90% in 2007
Methacrylic Acid returns to balance after serious shortages. All information or advice provided in this Article is intended to be general in nature and you should not rely on it in connection with the making of any decisions. Lucite International Limited and the companies within the Lucite International group of companies try to ensure that all information provided in this Article is correct at the time of inclusion but does not guarantee the accuracy of such information. Lucite International Limited and the companies within the Lucite International Limited group of companies are not liable for any action you may take as a result of relying on the information or advice within the Article nor for any loss or damage suffered by you arising therefrom. |
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